X ~ N(μ, σ²) z = (x̄ − μ₀) / (σ/√n) ŷt+h ± 1.96σ̂ μ probability · distribution c = 1.645 H₀H₁ α z Reject H₀ hypothesis testp < α 95% PI forecast 01 Statistical Decision Analysis and Forecasting Spring202420252026 Fall2023202420252026
ŷ = fθ(X), θ* = argminθ 𝓛(y, ŷ) SELECT c.id, SUM(o.amount) FROM orders o JOIN customers c ON … WHERE o.date >= 2025 GROUP BY c.id; SQL · data extraction ML · ensemble deep learning predict AUC 0.91 R² 0.87 business model · KPI 02 Business Modeling Analysis Spring202420252026
Value = f(Data, Models, Organization) Data AI Model Decision Value AI value chain Quick wins feasibility → impact → 03 Artificial Intelligence Business Strategy Fall2023202420252026